LAS VEGAS — The Phoenix Suns may have another move or two up their sleeve this summer.
They’ve already had a rather busy offseason.
Firing coach Monty Williams. Hiring Frank Vogel.
Trading for Bradley Beal. Trading away Chris Paul.
Signing guys at veteran minimums when they’re over the second tax apron of $182.5 million.
Landing Eric Gordon. Finally.
The Suns have had a successful offseason, but anything short of a championship at the end of the 2023-24 season will be a disappointment for a team with three prolific scorers, a talented big man and depth.
Can this group win it all?
Depends.
Suns will win an NBA championship with this roster if …
Suns must stay healthy
Health is always a concern, but especially for the Suns. Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Beal have dealt with injuries throughout their careers.
So, let’s just say their Big 3 plays close to 60 games together and are healthy come playoff time.
Defending also is a given. New head coach Frank Vogel brings a defensive philosophy that should improve a team that ranked 13th out of 16 teams in the playoffs this past season.
Being healthy and playing solid defense certainly will help Phoenix’s championship cause.
Durant probably has two great years left. He’ll turn 35 in September.
Father time is undefeated, even against the greatest ones, but the Suns need Durant to have one of those seasons that reminds the league just how special he is.
Beyond that, Phoenix’s championship hopes hinge on three other things.
Booker the playmaker must thrive
You’d think bringing in better players would lessen his load, but Booker will have to do even more in playing the lead guard role.
Booker is as prepared for this as he’s ever been at any point in his career.
Former coach Earl Watson put the ball in his hands. Williams did so to make him a more complete player.
Booker watched and learned from one of the best to ever set a table in Paul, who is third all-time in assists. Now it’s time for Booker to put those experiences into practice and make plays.
He’ll still get his points. No worries there. His ability to score will create opportunities for others.
The Suns even retained Booker’s guy, associate head coach Kevin Young, who will likely orchestrate the offense.
If Booker can have a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, great. If he’s 3-to-1, that’s scary good for the Suns.
Deandre Ayton maximizing opportunities
He’s going to get fewer shots playing with Beal, Booker and Durant, but more than half of his attempts should be wide open or at the rim because of the attention they’ll draw.
Ayton is a career 59.7% shooter from the field. His career best was 63.4% in 2021-22. With this team, he should make at the worst 65% of his shots. At best, close to 70%.
Ayton should also be a better defender under Vogel. He’ll have to be for the Suns to defend the way Vogel wants on the perimeter.
This ultimately comes down to his attitude. The obvious tension between him and Williams is gone with his former head coach now leading the Detroit Pistons.
Vogel is looking to really connect with him. He’s playing with three of the game’s best.
No more excuses. Ayton must deliver the touches he gets and really be a defensive anchor.
Making open shots
Vogel’s scheme will help everyone defensively, but it’ll be interesting to see how the offense looks.
Regardless of what offense they run, the Suns will get open looks.
Whoever that fifth guy is, he must make defenses pay for playing off him. Keita Bates-Diop. Damion Lee. Yuta Watanabe. Josh Okogie.
Trust is everything and if these guys can’t deliver, it’ll be easier to defend Booker, Durant and Beal.
Starting 5s
Ideal one: Booker, Beal, Durant, Bates-Diop and Ayton. The 6-8 Bates-Diop provides size, length, athleticism and can knock down the 3. He shot a career-best 39.4% from distance last season. If he can hold his own defensively, Bates-Diop completes what could be the biggest starting five in the league.
If not, Okogie could very well get the starting nod as he’s the best defender. The Suns could use someone who can take on that role of guarding the opposing team’s best offensive perimeter player.
Next five in rotation: Cameron Payne, Eric Gordon, Josh Okogie, Yuta Watanabe and Drew Eubanks. Got a pace setter in Payne, two shooters in Watanabe and Gordon, a defender in Okogie and an active big in Eubanks who can get extra possessions with offensive rebounds.
3-guard look: Payne, Beal, Booker, Durant and Ayton. Payne’s greatest strength with this group would be creating pace. Playing fast will enable everyone else to get easier shots earlier in the shot clock. Got to make shots, though. Payne’s a career 36.3% shooter from 3.
Next five in rotation: Jordan Goodwin, Gordon, Watanabe, Bates-Diop and Eubanks.
Bigger lineup: Booker, Beal, Durant, Ayton and Eubanks. Ayton at the four is interesting. Hasn’t shown the handles to play that position. Guys in that role need to be able to space the floor with their shooting, but Ayton can knock down the jumper. This unit should own the glass with him and Eubanks.
Next five in rotation: Payne, Gordon, Okogie, Watanabe and Chimezie Metu.
Closing 5: Booker, Gordon, Beal, Durant, Ayton. The Suns will need someone to space the floor in close games down the stretch. Damion Lee could easily be in there after knocking down 45.5% of his 3s last season, but Gordon has the experience in big-time games to play that role.
Wildcard rotation: Damion Lee and Toumani Camara. It’s another show-and-prove season for Lee. Can he continue to light it up from deep. He shot 20% on 3s (3-of-15) in the postseason last year.
As for Camara, the 6-8 rookie has size and can defend. If how he guarded at Dayton can translate to the NBA, Camara stands a good chance of getting an opportunity.
If he can defend and make shots, too?
Best free agent signing: Bates-Diop
He was a role player in San Antonio. So having that mentality alone will help him, but Bates-Diop can space the floor. He’s shot better than 50% from the field overall in his last two years.
The key for him is defending and rebounding. He’s averaging 3.2 boards for his career. That’s not enough.
From Suns GM James Jones: “Keita’s combination of length, defensive versatility and shooting is extremely valuable to our team.”
Biggest free agent signing: Gordon
Suns fans have been calling for him to join their team for a long time.
He’s finally here. Gordon will be a veteran presence in the locker room. His shooting speaks for itself, but Gordon battles on defense as well.
From Suns GM James Jones: “Eric is a winning player who will make our team more dynamic and help us in our pursuit of an NBA championship.”
Catch-and-shoot
A major requirement when playing with Durant and Booker is knocking down catch-and-shoot 3s.
Those shots are going to be there for everyone else, including Beal.
Here’s a look at what their remaining perimeter players shot from 3 on catch-and-shoot last season.
Lee: 47% (108-of-230) in regular season, 23.1% (3-of-13) in playoffs.
Watanabe: 45.7% (59-of-129) in regular season, 50% (1-of-2) in playoffs.
Bates-Diop: 40.5% (51-of-126) in regular season, didn’t make playoffs.
Gordon: 37% (98-of-265) in regular season, 31.8% (7-of-22) in playoffs.
Okogie: 34.6% (56-of-162) in regular season; 14.3% (2-of-14) in playoffs.
Goodwin: 34.2% (27-of-79) in regular season, didn’t make playoffs.
Payne: 33.3% (36-of-108) in regular season, 29.4% (5-of-17) in playoffs.
Ish Wainright: 33.1% (53-of-160) in regular season, 25% (1-of-4) in playoffs.
These guys should get open catch-and-shoot 3s. Whoever emerges out of the regular season with the best combination of percentage and makes will be on the floor in the postseason.
Nuggets power forward Aaron Gordon, a career 32.5% shooter from 3 in the regular season, made 37.9% (11-of-29) of his catch-and-shoot 3s in the playoffs this year.
That was huge for the Nuggets in winning their first NBA championship.
Keep that in mind with the Suns moving forward.
Like Ray Allen
Allen made the biggest adjustment in playing with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce when the Celtics formed their Big 3 and won it all their first season together in 2008.
It was then Allen became more known for being a catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter.
Beal is the Wizards all-time leader in made 3s. Like Allen back then, Beal can do more than that, but draining catch-and-shoot 3s could very well be his main job.
Last season, Beal made 44-of-110 (40%) of those 3s. If he can deliver like that playing alongside Booker and Durant, teams are going to have an even tougher time guarding the Suns.
In addition, Gordon must do more catch and shoot, too.
He likes to put the ball on the floor at times to get to the rim, but with this team, Gordon would be wise to let it fly more times than trying to create off the bounce for himself or something else.
